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Intuitive Probabilities – Conjunction Malfunction
In a recent post I wrote about Vic, who might not look like a Christian, but probably is one. The Vic example reminded me of a famous study of unintuitive probabilities done in 1983. Amos Tversky and...
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Feynman’s Minority Report and Top-Down Design
On reading my praise of Richard Feynman, a fellow systems engineer and INCOSE member (International Council on Systems Engineering) suggested that I read Feynman’s Minority Report to the Space Shuttle...
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Belief in Probability – Part 1
Years ago in a meeting on design of a complex, redundant system for a commercial jet, I referred to probabilities of various component failures. In front of this group of seasoned engineers, a highly...
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How to Pick a Spouse
Bekhap’s Law asserts that brains times beauty equals a constant. Can this be true? Are intellect and beauty quantifiable? Is beauty a property of the subject of investigation, or a quality of the mind...
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Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis in the Engineering and Procurement of...
The use of weighted-sum value matrices is a core component of many system-procurement and organizational decisions including risk assessments. In recent years the USAF has eliminated weighted-sum...
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